Recession Calculator

What This Program Does

This program calculates the cash and investment needed for full recovery from a recession. You need to select the parameters for calculations.

Recession: Imagine a crash that wipes out 70% of your stock portfolio. This tool helps you explore how much cash buffer and invested capital you may need to survive and fully recover. How should you get prepared and survive such a recession? Play with the parameters and calculate.

You should have some cash buffer when the recession STARTS. How much? That strongly depends on your stock’s average monthly return over the full period.

For example, TQQQ’s average monthly return was about 3% in its first 15 years. However, between November 2021 (when stock market peaked) and November 2025, in 4 years, average monthly return was below 1.5%.
This program finds the amount of cash and investment needed for full recovery within the parameters that you select.

Example

If you need $1,000 a month for your expenses, you need to invest more than $25,000 in TQQQ and you should have about $30,000 cash when the recession starts (assuming that TQQQ performs as it did in the past 15 years).
To cover $5,000 in monthly expenses, you simply need to scale this strategy up, requiring five times the amount of both invested capital and cash savings.

Parameters

Results

Portfolio Value Over Time (Scenario A vs Best Scenario B)

Scenario A
No Cash Buffer

The Best Scenario B
Includes Cash Buffer

Scenario C
A Static Hybrid Example which includes both cash buffer and credit card debt

Parameters

  • Monthly spending: $1,000
  • Total months: 60
  • Recession length: 12 months
  • Total recession drawdown: 70% loss
  • Target average monthly return over full period: 1.5%
  • Credit card interest: 2% per month

A Hybrid Scenario

  • Cash buffer months: 30
  • Credit-card use months: 23
  • Minimum starting capital: $81,077
  • Cash buffer at start: $30,000
  • Invested at start: $51,077
  • Max credit card balance (peak debt): $28,845
  • Max allowed card debt: $30,000

End of 60 Months

  • Final investment after 60 months: $81,077
  • Final credit card debt: $0 (target: $0)
  • Worst (minimum) investment balance: $15,323

Scenario B options

Summary Over Buffer Sizes (18, 24, 30, 36, 42 months)

The Best Scenario B

Month-by-Month Explanation